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　　哪些命運，你以為是必然，其實只是偶然？
　　哪些機會，你以為是偶然，其實都是必然？
　　事業能成功，投資能賺錢，一部電影會賣座，一本書會暢銷，有多少是出於運氣？
　　不管是人生之路，還是發生在你我周遭之事，全都像「醉漢走路」！

　　從學業到事業、到平時生活大小事，我們經常會碰到這樣的疑問：
　　為什麼兩篇差不多的作文，其中一篇的分數比較高？
　　為什麼比爾蓋茲能成功、史蒂芬金的小說會暢銷、布魯斯威利一炮而紅？
　　為什麼某款葡萄酒在A雜誌評鑑為五顆星，在B雜誌卻評為年度最差？

　　現實世界發生的許多事，都是隨機的，就像浮游在液體中的花粉微粒，
　　會不斷的讓一個接著一個的隨機事件推向東、推向西；
　　我們從校園到職場的人生歷程，
　　或是高爾夫球從第一洞到第十八洞的軌跡，股票市場的漲漲跌跌，都是如此。
　　各種出乎意外的事件遲早會發生，但終歸會到達某個位置──
　　這正是「醉漢走路」這個模型代表的涵義。

　　讀了《醉漢走路》，你會更明白隨機、機遇是怎麼一回事，
　　你也會重新思考「機會、命運、偶然、必然」的意義，
　　重新思索各種決策和結論，看穿表象、看清真相。
　　更重要的是，你也會知道如何提升成功的機率。

　　In this irreverent and illuminating audio book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, chance, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious causes, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.

　　The rise and fall of your favorite movie star or the most reviled CEO-in fact, all our destinies-reflects chance as much as planning and innate abilities. Even Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth’s single season home run record, was in all likelihood not great, but just lucky.

　　How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars by one journal and called the worst wine of the decade by another? Wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor’s office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow’s insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

　　Offering listeners not only a tour of randomness, chance and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man afresh from a night at a bar.

作者簡介

曼羅迪諾　Leonard Mlodinow

　　加州大學柏克萊分校物理博士，曾擔任電視影集「星鑑奇航記：銀河飛龍」、「百戰天龍」編劇之一，現在任教於加州理工學院。著有《歐幾里得之窗》、《費曼的彩虹》，並與霍金合著新版《時間簡史》。

　　Leonard Mlodinow received his doctorate in physics from the University of California, Berkeley, was an Alexander von Humboldt fellow at the Max Planck Institute, and now teaches about randomness to future scientists at Caltech. Along the way he also wrote for the television series MacGyver and Star Trek: The Next Generation. His previous books include Euclid’s Window: The Story of Geometry from Parallel Lines to Hyperspace, Feynman’s Rainbow: A Search for Beauty in Physics and in Life, and, with Stephen Hawking, A Briefer History of Time. He lives in South Pasadena, California.